This Article Full Text (PDF) References Alert me when this article is cited Alert me if a correction is posted Citation Map Services Email this article to a friend Similar articles in this journal Alert me to new issues of the journal Add to Saved Citations Download to citation manager Request Permissions Request Reprints Add to My Marked Citations Citing Articles Citing Articles via HighWire Citing Articles via Google Scholar Citing Articles via Scopus Google Scholar Articles by Mousseau, M. Articles by Shi, Y. Search for Related Content Social Bookmarking                         What's this?

A Test for Reverse Causality in the Democratic Peace Relationship

Department of International Relations, Koç University

Yuhang Shi

Department of Political Science, East Carolina University

Several studies have suggested the possibility of reverse causation in the `democratic peace' relationship: that the well-known extreme rarity of wars between democratic nations may be partially or wholly explained by a negative impact of war on democracy. Three kinds of war-on-regime effects are discussed. Anterior effects are regime changes that occur in preparation for wars; concurrent effects are those that occur during the course of a war; and posterior effects are regime changes that occur after a war concludes. Because studies have shown that democratic nations are rarely, if ever, on opposite sides in wars at their start, it is argued that reversed causation may affect the presence of causation from democracy to peace only if nations tend to become more autocratic as they prepare for impending wars. This proposition is examined with the observation of war events involving geographic neighbors or major powers, worldwide, from 1816 to 1992. With interrupted time-series analysis, it is found that nations are about as likely to become more institutionally autocratic as they are to become more democratic in the periods before the onset of wars. Moreover, this pattern holds even for the smaller subset of nations estimated to be democratic in the periods before major wars. These results indicate that studies of regime type and war participation have not been underspecified due to possible reverse causation before the onset of wars, and thus support the notion that the direction of causation in the democracy and war relationship is unidirectional from democracy to peace.

Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 36, No. 6, 639-663 (1999)
DOI: 10.1177/0022343399036006003


CiteULike    Complore    Connotea    Del.icio.us    Digg    Reddit    Technorati    Twitter    What's this?

This article has been cited by other articles:

				F. Chernoff Conventionalism as an Adequate Basis for Policy-Relevant IR Theory European Journal of International Relations, March 1, 2009; 15(1): 157 - 194. [Abstract] [PDF]

				M. Mousseau Comparing New Theory with Prior Beliefs: Market Civilization and the Democratic Peace Conflict Management and Peace Science, February 1, 2005; 22(1): 63 - 77. [Abstract] [PDF]

				K. Rasler and W. R. Thompson The Democratic Peace and a Sequential, Reciprocal, Causal Arrow Hypothesis Comparative Political Studies, October 1, 2004; 37(8): 879 - 908. [Abstract] [PDF]

				M. Mousseau, H. Hegre, and J. R. O'neal How the Wealth of Nations Conditions the Liberal Peace European Journal of International Relations, June 1, 2003; 9(2): 277 - 314. [Abstract] [PDF]

				M. Colaresi and W. R. Thompson The Economic Development-Democratization Relationship: Does the Outside World Matter? Comparative Political Studies, May 1, 2003; 36(4): 381 - 403. [Abstract] [PDF]

				M. Mousseau Market Prosperity, Democratic Consolidation, and Democratic Peace Journal of Conflict Resolution, August 1, 2000; 44(4): 472 - 507. [Abstract] [PDF]