|
Sign In to gain access to subscriptions and/or personal tools.
|
The Dynamics of Civil War Duration and Outcome
Karl R. de Rouen, JR
School of Political Science and Communication, University of Canterbury, karl.derouen{at}canterbury.ac.nz
David Sobek
Department of Political Science, Binghamton University (SUNY)
Civil wars have several outcomes: government victory, rebel victory, truce, or treaty. This analysis models state capacity as a theoretical starting point to underpin hypotheses on duration and outcome. To test these hypotheses, multinomial logit and competing risk survival analysis are utilized. These methods allow for the examination of each outcome and its respective duration dynamics. Logit tells us what shapes the probability of each outcome, and hazard analysis identifies the factors that determine the time to each outcome. The models examine the years 1944 to 1997 and find that state capacity is involved in outcome and duration in at least two important ways. An effective state bureaucracy undermines the rebels, but a strong government army does not necessarily enhance the government cause. UN intervention decreases the probability of both government and rebel victory, while increasing the likelihood of a treaty or truce. In addition, rebels have a decreased probability of winning ethnic wars. Forest cover hinders rebels and treaties, while mountain cover tends to help rebels. African wars are harder for governments to win. African wars and ethnic wars are longer.
Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 41, No. 3,
303-320 (2004)
DOI: 10.1177/0022343304043771
 CiteULike  Complore  Connotea  Del.icio.us  Digg  Reddit  Technorati  Twitter What's this?
This article has been cited by other articles:
|
|
|
|
 
E. A. Stanley and J. P. Sawyer
The Equifinality of War Termination: Multiple Paths to Ending War
Journal of Conflict Resolution,
October 1, 2009;
53(5):
651 - 676.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
M. Fuhrmann and J. Tir
Territorial Dimensions of Enduring Internal Rivalries
Conflict Management and Peace Science,
September 1, 2009;
26(4):
307 - 329.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
H. Buhaug, S. Gates, and P. Lujala
Geography, Rebel Capability, and the Duration of Civil Conflict
Journal of Conflict Resolution,
August 1, 2009;
53(4):
544 - 569.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D. E. Cunningham, K. Skrede Gleditsch, and I. Salehyan
It Takes Two: A Dyadic Analysis of Civil War Duration and Outcome
Journal of Conflict Resolution,
August 1, 2009;
53(4):
570 - 597.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
H. Fjelde and I. De Soysa
Coercion, Co-optation, or Cooperation?: State Capacity and the Risk of Civil War, 1961--2004
Conflict Management and Peace Science,
February 1, 2009;
26(1):
5 - 25.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
T. Edward Flores and I. Nooruddin
Democracy under the Gun Understanding Postconflict Economic Recovery
Journal of Conflict Resolution,
February 1, 2009;
53(1):
3 - 29.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
D. Balch-Lindsay, A. J. Enterline, and K. A. Joyce
Third-Party Intervention and the Civil War Process
Journal of Peace Research,
May 1, 2008;
45(3):
345 - 363.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
K. R. Derouen JR and J. Bercovitch
Enduring Internal Rivalries: A New Framework for the Study of Civil War
Journal of Peace Research,
January 1, 2008;
45(1):
55 - 74.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
I. Svensson
Fighting with Faith: Religion and Conflict Resolution in Civil Wars
Journal of Conflict Resolution,
December 1, 2007;
51(6):
930 - 949.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
I. Svensson
Bargaining, Bias and Peace Brokers: How Rebels Commit to Peace
Journal of Peace Research,
March 1, 2007;
44(2):
177 - 194.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
S. C. Carey
Rebellion in Africa: Disaggregating the Effect of Political Regimes
Journal of Peace Research,
January 1, 2007;
44(1):
47 - 64.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
C. L. Thyne
Cheap Signals with Costly Consequences: The Effect of Interstate Relations on Civil War
Journal of Conflict Resolution,
December 1, 2006;
50(6):
937 - 961.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
P. M. Regan and A. Aydin
Diplomacy and Other Forms of Intervention in Civil Wars
Journal of Conflict Resolution,
October 1, 2006;
50(5):
736 - 756.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
B. Korf and S. Engel
On the Incentives of Violence: Greed and Pride in Sri Lanka.s Civil War
South Asia Economic Journal,
March 1, 2006;
7(1):
99 - 116.
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
H. Hegre
The Duration and Termination of Civil War
Journal of Peace Research,
May 1, 2004;
41(3):
243 - 252.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
