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Tracking Democracy's Third Wave with the Polity III Data
Keith Jaggers
Department of Political Science, University of Colorado
Ted Robert Gurr
Center for International Development & Conflict Management, University of Maryland
This article reports and analyzes an updated version of the widely-used Polity II dataset, consisting of annual indicators of institutional democracy and autocracy for 161 states spanning the years from 1946 through 1994. The validity of the Polity III indicators of regime type is supported by their strong correlations (.85 to .92) with seven conceptually and operationally different indicators of democracy developed by other researchers. Comparative analysis of global and regional trends in democracy shows the extent to which the Middle East and Africa lag behind other world regions in the transition to democracy. A series of challenges to the `third wave' of democratization are identified, with particular attention paid to the large numbers of institutionally unconsolidated, or `incoherent', polities that have recently emerged, mainly due to attempts by autocratic elites to contain domestic and international pressures to liberalize their regimes.
Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 32, No. 4,
469-482 (1995)
DOI: 10.1177/0022343395032004007
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July 1, 2002;
39(4):
395 - 416.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
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J.-P. AZAM and A. HOEFFLER
Violence Against Civilians in Civil Wars: Looting or Terror?
Journal of Peace Research,
July 1, 2002;
39(4):
461 - 485.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
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D. H. BEARCE and E. ON. FISHER
Economic Geography, Trade, and War
Journal of Conflict Resolution,
June 1, 2002;
46(3):
365 - 393.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
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C. DAVENPORT and P. BALL
Views to a Kill: Exploring the Implications of Source Selection in the Case of Guatemalan State Terror, 1977-1995
Journal of Conflict Resolution,
June 1, 2002;
46(3):
427 - 450.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
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P. A. WEITSMAN and G. E. SHAMBAUGH
International Systems, Domestic Structures, and Risk
Journal of Peace Research,
May 1, 2002;
39(3):
289 - 312.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
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J. PICKERING
War-weariness and Cumulative Effects: Victors, Vanquished, and Subsequent Interstate Intervention
Journal of Peace Research,
May 1, 2002;
39(3):
313 - 337.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
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E. NEUMAYER
Do Democracies Exhibit Stronger International Environmental Commitment? A Cross-country Analysis
Journal of Peace Research,
March 1, 2002;
39(2):
139 - 164.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
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L. C. Keith
Constitutional Provisions for Individual Human Rights (1977-1996): Are They More than Mere "Window Dressing?"
Political Research Quarterly,
March 1, 2002;
55(1):
111 - 143.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
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G. L. Munck and J. Verkuilen
Conceptualizing and Measuring Democracy: Evaluating Alternative Indices
Comparative Political Studies,
February 1, 2002;
35(1):
5 - 34.
[Abstract]
[PDF]
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